What the H-1 Was - and What the H-1B Became

Before 1990, the United States admitted foreign workers under the H-1 visa. The program was small, targeted, and functional. It required direct employment by the sponsoring company, genuine specialty occupations, and market-rate compensation. Roughly 48,000 workers entered annually - enough to fill genuine gaps without displacing domestic workers.[2]

The Immigration Act of 1990 replaced H-1 with H-1B and removed the safeguards that made the original program work. Staffing firms were permitted to sponsor workers. The specialty occupation definition was broadened. Unlimited renewals created de facto permanent status. The result: a program that now sustains over 600,000 active workers, dominated by outsourcing companies paying below-market wages.[1]

The H-1B program was a policy choice, not an inevitability. The H-1 worked. The H-1B was designed to expand volume, and it did - at the cost of the program's integrity.

FeatureH-1 (Pre-1990)H-1B (Post-1990)
IntentTruly temporary - for specialized foreign workersDe facto permanent - 65% are renewals, average tenure 6+ years
Employer TypeDirect employment only - worker employed by sponsoring companyStaffing firms permitted - 6 of top 10 employers are outsourcing companies
Specialty OccupationStrict - required genuine expertise unavailable domesticallyLoosely defined - entry-level IT roles routinely qualify
WagesMarket rate - employer paid what the role was worthBelow market - 60% certified at Level 1 or Level 2 (below median)
Volume~48,000/year - modest numbers reflecting genuine scarcity600,000+ active workers - mass program exceeding any talent scarcity
Labor Market TestRequired - employer had to demonstrate domestic unavailabilityNo meaningful test - no requirement to recruit Americans first

Sources: USCIS H-1B Employer Data Hub, Department of Labor LCA data, Congressional Research Service[1][2][4]

H-1B Program Volume: From 48,000 to 600,000+

1990 (H-1 era)
48,000
1995
117,000
2000
257,000
2005
266,000
2010
192,000
2015
275,000
2020
407,000
2024
600,000+
Pre-1990 (H-1)H-1B growthAcceleratingCurrent

Sources: USCIS, Department of Labor[1][2]

The Scale of the Problem

In FY2024, USCIS received 758,994 H-1B registrations for 85,000 available slots - a 9:1 ratio.[1] Six of the top ten H-1B employers are outsourcing firms, not technology innovators.[3] Sixty percent of H-1B positions are certified at wages below the median for the occupation and area.[4] This is not a program importing exceptional talent. It is a program importing cheaper labor.

AI Changes the Calculus

The H-1B program was built on a 1990 assumption: that the United States needed large numbers of foreign technology workers because domestic supply was insufficient. Even if that assumption was valid in 1990, artificial intelligence has fundamentally changed the equation.

AI coding assistants now increase software developer productivity by 25-55%.[5] AI agents handle 40-60% of Tier 1 IT support tickets.[6] AI-driven testing tools reduce manual QA workloads by 40-70%.[5] Routine data analysis, system administration, and infrastructure management are increasingly automated.[6]

The occupations most affected by AI automation are exactly the occupations that dominate H-1B usage. This is not a coincidence. The H-1B program imports workers to perform tasks that AI is now capable of augmenting or replacing.

SectorAI ImpactImplication for H-1B
Software DevelopmentAI coding tools increase developer productivity 25-55%[5]Fewer developers needed to produce same output
IT Services / Help DeskAI agents resolve 40-60% of Tier 1 support tickets[6]Entry-level IT roles - core H-1B category - being automated
Data AnalysisAI tools automate 30-40% of routine data processing[7]Junior analyst roles shrinking; senior expertise more valued
Quality AssuranceAI-driven testing reduces manual QA needs by 40-70%[5]QA engineering - common H-1B role - increasingly automated
System AdministrationAI operations tools automate infrastructure management[6]Cloud automation reduces demand for routine sysadmin work

Sources: GitHub, McKinsey Global Institute, MIT research[5][6][7]

Top H-1B Occupations and AI Exposure

The overlap between H-1B occupations and AI-exposed occupations is striking. The roles that consume the most H-1B visas are precisely the roles where AI is reducing demand for labor.

OccupationH-1B ShareAI ExposureDetail
Software Developers28%[3]HighAI coding assistants significantly augment developer productivity
Computer Systems Analysts12%[3]Very HighAI tools increasingly perform systems analysis and recommendations
Computer Programmers8%[3]Very HighRoutine programming is among the first tasks automated by AI
Database/Network Admins6%[3]HighCloud automation and AI ops tools reducing manual administration
Accountants/Auditors5%[3]HighAI-powered accounting tools automate transaction processing and analysis
Management Analysts4%[3]ModerateAI augments analysis but strategic judgment remains human

Sources: USCIS H-1B Employer Data Hub, OpenAI/UPenn research on AI labor market exposure[3][7]

The Productivity Paradox

If AI makes each developer 25-55% more productive, a company that previously needed 100 developers to maintain its products now needs 50-75.[5] Yet H-1B applications continue to rise. The program is not importing workers to fill genuine shortages - it is importing workers because they cost less than Americans. AI makes this arbitrage less defensible, not more: if fewer workers are needed, the workers who remain should be the most skilled, best compensated, and most deeply integrated - exactly the profile the original H-1 visa was designed for.

What America Still Needs: Genuine Specialists

This analysis does not argue that the United States needs zero foreign workers. It argues that the United States does not need a mass program. There will always be individuals with genuinely exceptional skills - researchers at the frontier of AI itself, engineers with rare hardware expertise, scientists in specialized fields. The original H-1 visa was designed to admit these people.

The distinction is between a selective program that imports the best in the world, and a volume program that imports cheaper substitutes for domestic workers. The H-1 was the former. The H-1B became the latter. The Affordability and Immigration Act proposes returning to the model that worked.

The Case for Selectivity Over Volume

Consider two approaches to foreign worker admissions:

H-1B: Volume Approach

  • 600,000+ active workers
  • 60% paid below median wages
  • Staffing firm dominated
  • Entry-level roles qualify
  • No domestic recruitment test
  • De facto permanent status

H-1: Selectivity Approach

  • ~48,000 workers (pre-1990 level)
  • Must exceed 75th percentile wages
  • Direct employment only
  • Genuine specialty required
  • Domestic recruitment required
  • Truly temporary - 3+3 year max

The Restored H-1: What the Act Proposes

The Affordability and Immigration Act does not eliminate foreign worker visas. It ends the H-1B program and restores the original H-1 framework with modern safeguards. The goal is a program that admits genuinely exceptional talent at market-rate compensation through direct employment - exactly what the pre-1990 H-1 accomplished.

RequirementDetailRationale
Direct Employment OnlyWorker must be a full-time employee of the sponsoring company. No staffing firms, no subcontracting, no body shops.Eliminates the labor arbitrage business model that dominates current H-1B usage
Genuine Specialty OccupationRole must require specialized expertise that is demonstrably unavailable in the domestic labor market. Entry-level IT does not qualify.Returns to original intent - importing talent America cannot produce, not cheaper substitutes for talent it can
Market-Rate CompensationSalary must meet or exceed the 75th percentile for the occupation and geographic area. No Level 1 or Level 2 wage certifications.Ensures visa workers are genuinely exceptional, not simply cheaper
Strict Temporary StatusMaximum 3-year term with one renewal. No indefinite extensions. Clear pathway to Green Card or departure.Restores the 'temporary' in temporary worker visa
Domestic Recruitment RequirementEmployer must demonstrate good-faith recruitment of American workers for at least 90 days before sponsoring a foreign worker.Every developed nation requires this; the U.S. is the outlier
Annual Volume Tied to Labor Market DataTotal H-1 visas capped and adjusted annually based on unemployment rates, wage trends, and occupation-specific labor market conditions.Prevents the program from operating on autopilot regardless of economic conditions

Transition: No Current Worker Left Behind

The Act includes explicit transition protections for every current H-1B holder:

5+ Years in the U.S.

Workers with 5+ years of continuous U.S. employment may convert to the restored H-1 visa or apply for a Green Card within 5 years. Workers directly employed at market wages are eligible immediately. Green Card priority processing is available.

Under 5 Years in the U.S.

Current H-1B is honored through the end of the approved period. Workers may apply for the restored H-1 under new requirements. A 180-day grace period applies if the worker does not qualify for H-1.

Staffing Firm Employees

Workers currently employed through staffing firms must transition to direct employment within 2 years, regardless of tenure. This is the core structural reform - ending the staffing firm business model that drives H-1B exploitation.

The Goal Is Not Exclusion - It Is Standards

A restored H-1 program would still admit foreign workers. It would admit fewer, pay them more, require genuine expertise, and ensure direct employment. Workers admitted under these standards would be more valued, more integrated, and more likely to contribute at the highest level. The program becomes better for everyone - including the workers themselves - when it operates as designed.

What the Evidence Shows

1.

The H-1B program no longer serves its original purpose. It was created for temporary specialized workers. It now functions as a permanent pipeline of lower-cost labor, dominated by outsourcing firms paying below-market wages.[1][4] The program has deviated so far from Congressional intent that reform within the H-1B framework is insufficient - the framework itself must be replaced.

2.

AI is reducing demand for the occupations H-1B fills. Software development, IT services, quality assurance, data analysis, and system administration - the core H-1B categories - are among the occupations most augmented or automated by AI.[5][7] The premise that America needs hundreds of thousands of foreign technology workers is weaker in 2026 than it was in 1990.

3.

The original H-1 framework was functional and sufficient. Before 1990, the H-1 visa admitted roughly 48,000 workers annually through direct employment at market wages.[2] It worked. The expansion to H-1B was a policy choice driven by employer lobbying, not a response to demonstrated labor shortages.[8]

4.

Every developed nation has stronger visa worker protections. Singapore requires minimum salary floors and foreign worker quotas. Australia requires labor market testing. Switzerland and Canada require proof that no domestic worker is available.[9] The U.S. H-1B program has none of these safeguards. The restored H-1 would include all of them.

5.

Selectivity and quality are not anti-immigrant - they are pro-standards. A program that admits 48,000 exceptional specialists at high wages through direct employment is better for the workers, better for American labor markets, and better for the companies that genuinely need world-class talent. Volume is the problem. Standards are the solution.

The Affordability and Immigration Act: Policy 3

The Act proposes ending the H-1B visa program and restoring the original H-1 framework. This is not a ban on foreign workers. It is a return to the standard that worked before 1990: direct employment, genuine specialty occupations, market-rate compensation, domestic recruitment requirements, and strict temporary status. In an era where AI is transforming the labor market, the case for a mass visa program has never been weaker - and the case for genuine selectivity has never been stronger.