Impact & Modeling

Expected effects, assumptions, uncertainties, and methodology.

Expected Effects

The Act is designed to produce measurable improvements across housing affordability, wage growth, and homeownership. All projections are estimates based on stated assumptions.

Housing Availability

Increased availability of entry-level homes through reduced competition from foreign buyers, institutional investors, and better supply conditions.

Estimated range: 10-25% increase in entry-level home availability within 5 years, depending on regional conditions.

Price Effects

Reduced price floors driven by foreign capital and institutional investors. Moderated price growth in high-pressure markets.

Estimated range: 5-15% reduction in investor-driven price premiums over the medium term.

Rent Growth

Slower rent growth as supply increases and institutional pricing pressure decreases.

Estimated range: 2-5 percentage point reduction in annual rent growth in high-pressure markets.

Wage Effects

Improved wage leverage for domestic workers in sectors currently affected by visa program distortions.

Estimated range: 5-12% wage growth in affected occupations relative to baseline.

Homeownership Rates

Higher homeownership rates for working families as affordability improves and competition decreases.

Estimated range: 3-8 percentage point increase for median-income households over 10 years.

Key Assumptions

  • 1.Local jurisdictions respond to federal incentives by reforming permitting. Effects depend on local adoption.
  • 2.Construction capacity can scale if barriers are removed.
  • 3.Foreign and institutional investors comply with divestment timelines rather than pursuing extended legal challenges.
  • 4.Labor market reforms result in wage increases rather than job losses, based on current labor market tightness.
  • 5.Enforcement mechanisms are adequately funded and consistently applied.

Uncertainties

Methodology

Projections are based on a combination of:

Data Sources

  • - Census Bureau housing data
  • - Bureau of Labor Statistics wage data
  • - Federal Reserve economic indicators
  • - Academic research on housing markets

Analytical Methods

  • - Supply-demand equilibrium modeling
  • - Labor market elasticity estimates
  • - Comparative policy analysis
  • - Sensitivity testing across scenarios

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