Impact & Modeling

Expected effects and methodology.

Expected Effects

The Act is designed to produce measurable improvements across housing affordability, wage growth, and homeownership. All projections are estimates based on stated assumptions.

Housing Availability

Increased availability of entry-level homes through reduced competition from foreign buyers, institutional investors, and better supply conditions.

Estimated range: 10-25% increase in entry-level home availability within 5 years, depending on regional conditions.[1][2]

Price Effects

Reduced price floors driven by foreign capital and institutional investors. Moderated price growth in high-pressure markets.

Estimated range: 5-15% reduction in investor-driven price premiums over the medium term.[1][3]

Rent Growth

Slower rent growth as supply increases and institutional pricing pressure decreases.

Estimated range: 2-5 percentage point reduction in annual rent growth in high-pressure markets.[4][1]

Wage Effects

Improved wage leverage for domestic workers in sectors currently affected by visa program distortions.

Estimated range: 5-12% wage growth in affected occupations relative to baseline.[5][6]

Homeownership Rates

Higher homeownership rates for working families as affordability improves and competition decreases.

Estimated range: 3-8 percentage point increase for median-income households over 10 years.[7][8]

Methodology

Projections are based on a combination of:

Data Sources

  • •Census Bureau housing data
  • •Bureau of Labor Statistics wage data
  • •Federal Reserve economic indicators
  • •Academic research on housing markets

Analytical Methods

  • •Supply-demand equilibrium modeling
  • •Labor market elasticity estimates
  • •Comparative policy analysis
  • •Sensitivity testing across scenarios

Sources & References

  1. U.S. Government Accountability Office: Large Investors and Single-Family Rentals (GAO-24-106643) - Documents 450,000 institutional investor-owned homes and market concentration rates of up to 25% in metro areas such as Atlanta
  2. National Association of Realtors: International Transactions in U.S. Residential Real Estate (2025) - Foreign buyers purchased 78,100 homes ($56 billion), 47% all-cash, concentrated in Florida, California, and Texas
  3. U.S. Census Bureau: Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Survey - Quarterly data on homeownership rates, vacancy rates, and housing inventory levels used in supply-demand modeling
  4. Federal Reserve: The Effect of Institutional Investors on Rent (2024) - Research finding that institutional landlords raise rents approximately 60% faster than small landlords upon acquisition
  5. George Borjas, Harvard University: Immigration and the American Worker (2013) - Analysis of immigration-driven wage redistribution ($402 billion from workers to employers) and labor market elasticity estimates
  6. Economic Policy Institute: H-1B Visas and Prevailing Wage Levels - Documents 60% of H-1B positions certified at below-median wages and 17-34% pay gaps relative to market rates
  7. Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University: The State of the Nation's Housing (2024) - Comprehensive analysis of homeownership trends, affordability barriers, and the 3.8 million unit housing shortage
  8. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Current Population Survey - Homeownership and Income Data - Historical wage, income, and employment data used in baseline projections for affected occupations and income groups

Projected ranges are modeled estimates based on the sources above, using supply-demand equilibrium modeling, labor market elasticity estimates, and comparative policy analysis. Actual outcomes will depend on implementation details, market conditions, and complementary policy actions.

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