How These Projections Were Developed
These are not econometric forecasts. They are evidence-based projections derived from three categories of observed outcomes: (1) historical U.S. data from the 1924-1965 immigration pause and the 2020-2021 COVID natural experiment, (2) international policy outcomes from Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, Australia, Switzerland, and Japan, and (3) documented research on each specific policy area (institutional ownership effects, foreign buyer restrictions, H-1B wage impacts, and zoning reform outcomes). All ranges reflect uncertainty; actual outcomes depend on implementation details, economic conditions, and market responses.
Projected Outcomes Over 10 Years
The following table presents projected ranges for six key metrics, with the evidence basis for each projection.
| Metric | Current | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 10 | Evidence Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price-to-income ratio | 5.1x | 4.6x - 4.8x | 4.0x - 4.4x | 3.2x - 3.8x | Historical: ratio was 3.6x before 1990 Act; 1924-1965 pause saw sustained improvement |
| Homeownership rate | 65.7% | 66.5% - 67.0% | 67.5% - 69.0% | 69.0% - 72.0% | Historical: rate rose 16.3pts during 1924-1965 pause (45.6% to 61.9%) |
| Housing shortage (units) | 3.8M | 3.0M - 3.3M | 2.0M - 2.5M | 0 - 1.0M | Reduced demand growth + federal construction incentives; current capacity ~1.4M/yr |
| Cost-burdened renters | 22.6M (50.8%) | 20M - 21M | 17M - 19M | 13M - 16M | Institutional divestment + reduced demand pressure + wage gains |
| Real wage growth (low-wage sectors) | Near zero (real) | +3% - 5% cumulative | +8% - 12% cumulative | +15% - 25% cumulative | COVID experiment: 12-28% gains in 2 years; 1924-1965: incomes doubled in 40 years |
| First-time buyer share | 21% | 25% - 28% | 30% - 35% | 35% - 40% | Historical norm: 40%+ (1981-2010 average); reduced competition from institutional/foreign buyers |
Ranges reflect uncertainty in implementation, economic conditions, and market responses. Sources: Census Bureau, BLS, JCHS, NAHB, international government data[1][2][3][4][5]
Policy-by-Policy Projected Effects
Each of the Act's five policies produces distinct, measurable effects. The projections above reflect the combined impact of all five operating simultaneously - which, as documented in our compounding analysis, produces greater effects than any single reform.
Policy 1: End Corporate Ownership
Mechanism: 2-year divestment of 450,000+ homes to owner-occupants
Short-term (Years 1-3)
Increased inventory for individual buyers; moderated price growth in Sunbelt markets
Long-term (Years 5-10)
Permanent structural change: homes as shelter, not financial assets; reduced rent growth
Measured by: Institutional ownership share; first-time buyer share; rent growth rates in affected metros
Evidence basis: Fed research: institutional landlords raise rents 60% faster upon acquisition
Policy 2: Reduce Immigration 90%
Mechanism: Annual admissions drop from ~1M to ~100K for 10 years
Short-term (Years 1-3)
Reduced demand pressure on housing; tight labor markets begin wage recovery
Long-term (Years 5-10)
Housing supply catches up with population; sustained wage growth for working class
Measured by: Housing starts vs. population growth; real wage growth by sector; rental vacancy rates
Evidence basis: Canada 2024: 25% cut → 6.6% rent decline; COVID: largest low-wage gains in decades
Policy 3: End H-1B, Restore H-1
Mechanism: Eliminate staffing firm exploitation; require direct employment at market wages
Short-term (Years 1-3)
Wage correction in tech, healthcare, and professional sectors; reduced displacement
Long-term (Years 5-10)
Domestic STEM wages normalize; H-1 attracts genuine specialty talent at market rates
Measured by: Prevailing wage compliance; staffing firm H-1 participation; sector wage growth
Evidence basis: EPI data: 60% of H-1B at below-median wages; 17-34% wage gap documented
Policy 4: End Foreign Ownership
Mechanism: Green Card minimum; 2-year divestment for existing foreign owners
Short-term (Years 1-3)
Reduced all-cash competition in FL, CA, TX; improved affordability in concentrated markets
Long-term (Years 5-10)
Permanent elimination of offshore capital pressure on residential market
Measured by: Foreign buyer transaction share; all-cash purchase rates; price growth in affected markets
Evidence basis: NZ: foreign share dropped 3.3% to <0.5% in one year; Singapore: 62% reduction
Policy 5: Increase Housing Construction
Mechanism: Federal incentives tied to production targets; streamlined permitting models
Short-term (Years 1-3)
Jurisdictions adopt fast-track permitting; construction accelerates in high-demand areas
Long-term (Years 5-10)
Structural shortage eliminated; housing production consistently matches demand
Measured by: Housing starts; permitting timelines; units per capita by jurisdiction; shortage estimates
Evidence basis: Japan: 2-month permitting; NZ: 12% building consent increase after national zoning reform
Implementation Timeline and Milestones
The Act is designed for phased implementation. The following milestones indicate what should be observable at each stage if the policies are working as intended.
Year 1
- •Immigration reduction takes effect; demand pressure begins declining
- •Corporate divestment period begins; inventory listings increase
- •Foreign ownership divestment begins; all-cash competition decreases
- •H-1B transition provisions activate; workers begin converting to H-1 or Green Card
- •Federal housing construction incentive program launched
Year 2
- •Corporate divestment deadline: 450,000+ homes transferred to owner-occupants
- •Foreign ownership divestment complete in residential markets
- •First measurable wage gains in high-immigration sectors
- •First jurisdictions receive bonus construction funding
- •Rental vacancy rates begin improving in previously tight markets
Year 3-5
- •Housing shortage begins closing (3.8M → ~2.0-2.5M)
- •Price-to-income ratio declining toward 4.0x-4.4x
- •First-time buyer share recovering toward 30%+
- •Real wage growth sustained across working-class sectors
- •Homeownership rate rising toward 67-69%
Year 5-10
- •Housing shortage approaching equilibrium
- •Price-to-income ratio approaching 3.2x-3.8x (pre-1990 Act levels)
- •Homeownership rate approaching 69-72%
- •10-year immigration reassessment based on housing and wage data
- •Measurable wealth accumulation for new homeowner cohort
What Comparable Countries Achieved
Every projection in this analysis is grounded in observed outcomes. The following table summarizes what comparable policies produced in developed nations and historical U.S. episodes.
| Country/Period | Action | Timeframe | Observed Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | Foreign buyer ban (2023) + 25% immigration cut (2024) | 1-2 years | Foreign buying near-zero; national rents fell 6.6%[1] |
| New Zealand | Foreign buyer ban (2018) + national zoning reform (2022) | 1-4 years | Foreign share 3.3% → <0.5%; building consents up 12%[2] |
| Singapore | 60% foreign buyer stamp duty (2023) | 1 year | Foreign transactions dropped 62% (4.7% → 1.8%)[3] |
| U.S. (1924-1965) | Immigration reduced ~80%; massive housing construction | 40 years | Homeownership +16.3pts; incomes doubled; inequality -20%[4] |
| U.S. (COVID 2020-21) | Unplanned immigration slowdown | 2 years | Largest low-wage gains in decades (+12-28% real in affected sectors)[5] |
The Compounding Advantage
Each of the examples above involved one or two policy changes. The Affordability and Immigration Act proposes five simultaneous reforms. Based on the compounding dynamic documented in our structural analysis, simultaneous implementation should produce outcomes greater than the sum of individual effects - because each reform removes a feedback loop that would otherwise undermine the others.
Risks and Uncertainties
Projections are not guarantees. The following risks could affect outcomes, along with the Act's built-in mitigations and relevant precedent.
| Risk | Likelihood | Mitigation | Precedent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market disruption during divestment periods | Moderate | 2-year timelines prevent fire sales; orderly transition preserves values | Canada's foreign buyer ban caused no market crash; prices stabilized gradually |
| Labor shortages in specific sectors | Moderate | 90% reduction, not 100%; critical sectors retain access; wages rise to attract domestic workers | COVID labor shortages resolved through wage increases, not economic collapse |
| Construction slowdown from reduced immigration labor | Low-Moderate | Higher construction wages attract domestic workers; federal incentives offset; H-1 visa available for genuine specialists | Post-WWII boom achieved 1.35M units/year with immigration at 230K/year |
| International trade retaliation | Low | 5 developed nations already restrict foreign buyers; trade agreement carve-outs available | No country has faced trade retaliation for foreign buyer restrictions |
| Legal challenges delay implementation | Moderate | All proposals within established constitutional authority; designed to withstand judicial review | Congressional plenary power over immigration virtually unreviewable; Dole framework for spending |
The 10-Year Reassessment
The Act's immigration reduction is explicitly temporary - 10 years - with a reassessment based on housing availability and wage data. This built-in review mechanism ensures that if outcomes differ from projections, policy can be adjusted based on evidence rather than ideology. The measurable benchmarks in this analysis provide a framework for that reassessment: if the price-to-income ratio has not declined toward 3.5x, if the housing shortage has not closed, or if wage growth has not materialized, the data will indicate whether to extend, modify, or end the reduction.
What Success Looks Like
If the Act achieves its projected outcomes, the United States in 2036 would look measurably different from 2026:
2026 (Current)
- •Price-to-income: 5.1x
- •Homeownership: 65.7%
- •First-time buyers: 21% of purchases
- •Housing shortage: 3.8 million units
- •Cost-burdened renters: 22.6 million
- •Real wage growth (low-wage): near zero
2036 (Projected)
- •Price-to-income: 3.2x-3.8x
- •Homeownership: 69-72%
- •First-time buyers: 35-40% of purchases
- •Housing shortage: 0-1 million units
- •Cost-burdened renters: 13-16 million
- •Real wage growth: +15-25% cumulative
These are not aspirational targets. They are evidence-based projections grounded in what comparable policies have produced in comparable countries and in prior U.S. experience. The Affordability and Immigration Act is designed to be measured against these benchmarks - and adjusted if the data indicates it should be.